NCAA Championship Game Preview: A Look at the Game Through KenPom's Numbers

KenPom. Something you hear all the time and it’s growing with each passing year. So, with the biggest game of the year, why not breakdown his numbers for the two teams. Seriously though I can’t stress how much the $20 subscription per year is worth for KenPom’s site. If you like the game and like advanced numbers it’s the best out there.

My biggest takeaway is how both teams dictate tempo. It’s something that’s talked about quite a bit and you can see both teams do what they want on both sides of the ball. The difference in average possession length on offense and defense shows that. They both want to push the tempo, something that’s no surprise on offense, but they will make you work defensively. Both teams don’t press a ton, which shows you how good they can be in the halfcourt.

There are very few things that these teams don’t do well. Gonzaga doesn’t force a lot of turnovers despite being the best defensive team in the country. UNC, a ‘tall’ and really strong offensive team shockingly gets blocked quite a bit. They get blocked more than 228 other teams in the country. Could Zach Collins feast again after putting up six blocks against South Carolina?

Neither team shoots a ton of threes, which makes the 3-point battle on Monday that important. UNC is 310th in the country at 30.1 percent for 3PA/FGA while Gonzaga is 32.9 percent. Both teams want to play through the post and attack the rim. UNC is a slightly above average 3-point shooting team, shooting 36.2% while Gonzaga shoots real well at 38.1%. In theory Gonzaga should win the 3-point line, which I think is one of the keys to this game.

Going with that, Gonzaga does an excellent job of guarding the 3-point. It’s something Mark Few has talked about during the NCAA Tournament, that his defensive philosophy is to take away the 3-point line, congest the paint and use their size to contest shots. Teams are only shooting 29.5% against them from the 3-point line, which is something to watch how Carolina shoots outside of Justin Jackson. UNC on the other hand will give you looks. They do give up a ton of three point attempts, but most are contested as they let teams shoot just below average.

This should be a relatively clean game. Both teams don’t foul a lot and don’t turn it over. Watch how the refs call the game. If they do call it tight, Gonzaga should get the slight benefit of the doubt as they shoot a little bit better from the free throw line and do draw more fouls than Carolina.

This game is going to be awesome.